I attend a Coffee Party

You’ve heard about the Tea Party here in the United States. Maybe you’ve even heard about the Coffee Party. Yesterday, I dropped by a small gathering of would-be activists to learn for myself about this second group.

The Coffee Party as I understand it is a reaction to rancor and vitriol spilled by the Tea Party. As opposed to focusing on hate for the status quo, the idea is to think constructively about the nation’s problems and make some suggestions. The difference as I understand it is as much about the approach as it is about the issues. The organizers of the Coffee Party are quite careful not to identify themselves as "progressives" or "liberals." The idea is to build bridges rather than to throw stones.

I had heard about the Coffee Party from an e-mail sent by the loosely organized group. The note said I could punch my zip code into the web site and learn if there were any meetings nearby. Because I don’t live in a metropolitan area, usually such meetings are too far away. In this case, however, I learned that the meeting was planned at the local university. Very convenient. I decided to drop by.

The meeting attracted 10 people – six undergrad college students and four people who were in their late 40s or older. Overall, there were three males – two older guys & one student. The age gap was a little awkward. I was aware of the differences in our experiences. One woman referred to marching against war for the last 30 years or so. These students have different experiences, different history. Ronald Reagan is a historical figure for these students, not a president they protested. The Contras? Who? Ollie North? The Vietnam War perhaps gets lumped in with the Korean War, just another meaningless war in Asia.

If anything, I would have preferred to hear more from these younger students, but they may have felt shy in front of older people who were obviously so passionate about political issues. What are the issues that are motivating the young people? Some of them discussed same-sex marriage, for example, remarking how they did not see the rationale for preventing it. In future meetings, it might be good to structure the discussion so that all members of the group are allocated time to enunciate their political concerns.

The agenda of the group was fuzzy – but the facilitator had some instructions from headquarters to help guide the meeting. Our primary agenda for the meeting was to discuss our personal priorities and then decide on a priority for our little group. While we deemed many issues important – stopping the war, protecting the environment, improving the education system – the issue that lay at the core was the reform of the campaign financing system.

How to fix it? That’s a hard question, because there are serious legal issues involved. Earlier this year, the Supreme Court invalidated a major part of the McCain-Feingold campaign reform law. None of us were lawyers. But we agreed on a gut level feeling that the political process has been corrupted by the power of money trumping the power of individuals.

Perhaps we could even agree with Tea Party activists on this point. I don’t know.

What’s next? We’re going to meet soon with our legendarily right-wing congressional representative to communicate our concerns. Beyond that, I don’t know. It may seem like the fruits of this organizing effort are small, but personally I believe that every action has an effect. The motives behind our meeting were good and positive, so I expect that the results will be similarly positive and good.

Oh, and one of the students even bought me coffee. Very nice!

Supreme Battle

Tonight I watched a clip of ABC news coverage about the nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court - just after reading MoveOn's talking points about the same nomination.

I'm not a legal scholar, but it seems like President Obama made a great choice. As I watched the ABC news report, I wondered about the news media in this country, which provides free air-time for conservative arguments, but gives much, much less coverage to the liberal point of view. The ABC piece was entirely composed of Republican complaints about the nomination - tired arguments that the judge might be "activist."

(There is this complete fiction that the corporate media push - that liberal judges are "activist," and conservative judges hew to the literal meaning of the Constitution. It's not that simple. Here's one discussion of the question.)

The ABC piece concluded with the news reader predicting that the Republicans would tread carefully in plotting their opposition to the pick because Sotomayor is a Latina, and the Republicans don't want to lose any more of this constituency. The way it was phrased emphasized the politics of the nomination, rather than Sotomayor's excellent qualifications.

Who killed the general?

The headline asks the obvious question.

Who killed the general?

The general in question is General-Lieutenant Rail Rzayev, who commanded the country's air force before being gunned down while getting into his car yesterday morning. His chauffeur, who was in the car at the time, was uninjured.

Not surprisingly, the murder is leading to some serious questions about power struggles within the government. Just because the government is not democratic doesn't mean that it is monolithic. Individual ministries have their own centers of power and compete with one another for influence and resources. Also, the people commanding the different ministries also have different financial interests. The murder could also be the result of some sort of business conflict involved with these financial interests.

The speculation about the assassination is heightened because it comes just a little more than a month before a referendum is to be held that would remove term limits on the president. The murdered general was perceived by many as an ally of the president, responsible for ensuring presidential security.

It is not only democrats who would have a reason for opposing this measure. Anyone who is hoping for a chance at the presidency would also have a reason to oppose this measure.


(On a lighter note, if you want to test your knowledge of dog breeds or share views on the Middle East, click here to take survey If you want to check out the results of the last survey, click here.)

New poll

My first attempt at polling didn't do too badly. Thirty four respondents in less than 24 hours. Not exactly scientific results and I think I could have crafted at least one of the questions better. One person remarked that it wasn't challenging enough - so I'll try to fix that in future polls here. You can read the results of that first poll by clicking on this link. If you have an additional 30 seconds to take another poll, please check out this one. It's a little more quirky.

Referendum approaches, and opposition grows

The signs are going up. Yes, in a couple of months, Azerbaijani citizens will have the chance to voice their approval of a measure that would remove the two-term limit from the president. But while President Ilham Aliyev was credited with reaping 89 percent of the vote in the November election, the proposed constitutional changes are stirring up real opposition.

The opposition to Aliyev has been fractious in the recent past, although the real opposition groups did agree to boycott the last election (hence - contributing to the Ilham’s landslide). Now, however, the referendum to remove term limits appears to galvanizing opposition groups, who might not see eye to eye on much but can agree that an limitation of the current regime is a bad thing for democracy.

But - as always the case, expressing opposition in Azerbaijan is costly. A reminder: the trial of human rights activist Leyla Yunus is scheduled to begin today. She is accused of "insulting" the ministry and causing "moral damage" to the reputation of the police after she questioned the conduct of a kidnapping trial in which a defendant had alleged police involvement. Human Rights Watch is calling for the government to drop its charges. But the prosecutor charges that she caused “moral damage” to the police by her comments during an interview.

It’s a reminder for journalists who are used to working the West, that our conventional understanding of libel laws aren’t really applicable in most countries. Truth, for example, is not a defense.

Leyla has been chosen to lead a coalition opposition groups called the Civil Movement for Karabakh and a Democratic Republic. The opposition is even growing on-line, with the creation of the Lale Movement, named after a little girl holding a sign in a recent protest. The group now has its own Facebook and Yahoo groups.

All of this is encouraging for those of us who favor more democracy in Azerbaijan, but the opposition is likely to face considerable pressure from a government that appears increasingly less tolerant of dissent. Earlier this week, seven activists were arrested after 20 members Musavat protested a government policy that closed BBC and Radio Liberty and Voice of America broadcasts on Azerbaijani frequencies. Here's another little article with a photo.

(Above is a photo of little Lale - and a photo of one of the many signs advertising the referendum.)

Looking ahead

I will not be attending Barack Obama's inauguration this week. Even if I were in the USA, I doubt I would attend. Too many people. But I am following closely the changes in Washington, DC, as hopeful as anyone about what a new administration could mean. It's not too difficult to ascertain my perspective on a variety of issues that the new president will face. On the issue of criminal investigations, for example, I'm hopeful that when the new administration is in place, people in the Bush Administration who committed crimes will be prosecuted.

I think most people understand at some level that a really fundamental reassessment of the past is necessary. How did things go so wrong? I came across one explanation today in an article by in The Atlantic. The author makes some very good points about the failings of the presidency as a legal institution. He's certainly not the first to note these failings. For example, Larry Bartels, who in a recent book documented the systematic bias of Republican administrations to favor the wealthy, has also written a lot about this issue.

But - many of the changes discussed by Garrett Epps and others require constitutional changes. These would be difficult to contemplate at any moment, and at the moment such matters are likely to be fairly far down the "to do" list for most Americans. Too bad, because the systemic problems of US governance are what allowed Bush the power to do so much damage.

Shaking up expectations

I rode back to Baku this afternoon, a rollicking and rapid ride in a taxi that jolted along the road at an average speed of 120 km an hour. Perhaps faster. Our driver took the task of conducting us to Baku as some sort of incessant contest, attempting to push the other vehicles off the road with his front bumper.

In other words, he was a fairly average taxi driver.

Roughly half way on the road between Lenkoran and Baku, we stopped for tea and I sat with the four other men. The driver and one of the passengers spoke some Russian, so we chatted a little. Naturally, about American politics. Obama provokes a lot of curiosity here. Is he really an American? How can that be? What a funny name? I answered their questions - and gave my abbreviated lecture on America & how Americans are white, brown, black, yellow, red & maybe green too.

The fact that Obama is black is strange for them, because there are very few Africans in Azerbaijan. But - I got the feeling that some of the men liked the idea that his father was raised a Muslim.

On my last night in Lenkoran, I was invited to an Azerbaijani wedding.

Invited may not be the right verb. “Dragged” is more accurate. I really wasn’t in the mood for a big party - but of course - that’s what I got.

The wedding was very large and very loud. Lots of food. Lots of dancing. Lots of drink. We got there about 10 p.m. and the party was in fully swing. My friend said a few words to the father of the bride, and soon the waiters came to our table, bringing bottles and dishes of the famous lavangi chicken and fish, the kebabs, and other delicious examples of Azerbaijani cuisine.

It was a fine way to spend my last night in the city. The December climate in Lenkoran is damp and cold, but the people are very warm.

(Above is a photo of the market in Lenkoran. Note all the beautiful apples.)

Watching the US election from Moscow

Coverage of Election Day in the USA today dominates the airwaves in Moscow. This morning, I saw a wonderfully detailed explanation of the Electoral College, and thought how much better served the American public would be by having the media provide such basic civic information than subject the public to the flatulence that passes for political discourse in the United States. There was a clear map & numbers to explain the system – which I’d venture about 10 percent of US citizens understand.

One of the stations also has been running little thumbnail biographies of both candidates. Not surprisingly, the bias is not too subtle toward Obama. Kremin may have been undecided earlier, but McCain has earned the steadfast enmity of the Russian government by his strident defense of Georgia this year. I’ve seen this segment on the candidates several times now. When was the last time you saw the US media present detailed information about the background of a Russian leader in the US media? You can say – “well, it’s not an open competitive political system” – but that does that mean that US citizens should be ignorant about these people?

(OK – Time magazine named Putin “Man of the Year” last year, and devoted the cover story to him. But in general, the US media do a horrible job of informing the US public about foreign affairs. Is it any wonder that US citizens were so easily duped by the Bush administration in so many areas?)

Of course, we get some equally silly commentary here – but perhaps it’s more amusing when it’s in a foreign language. Over breakfast, I listened to Zhirinovsky, for example. Yes, I have a strong stomach. (For those of you who don’t follow Russian politics, Zhirinovsky is a former presidential candidate and current member of the Duma, the Russian parliament. He enjoys his notoriety as an anti-Semitic and ultra-nationalistic racist.)

Zhirinovsky’s perspective: Obama will be the US version of Gorbachev, leading to the dismantling of the US empire. The Mexicans will flood over the border. The blacks will take control of the country.

While this might be the occasion for some glee on the part of US foes, I also detected some ambivalence in Zhirinovsky. For any real racist, the idea of a despised race coming to power has to be disturbing, even if this is occurring in a foreign country.

I thought about the racists in my own country. There are many. But Obama is winning the election on the pledge to change much in the country, and a majority of people in the country recognize that major changes are needed. (I forget the current percentage of how many people tell pollsters that the country is heading in the wrong direction. A sizeable majority has felt this way for years.) The problem is – getting the people to agree on the changes. Major changes are needed & major changes are needed. I have absolutely no reservation in stating that Obama is the right person for this job right now. It’s a historic opportunity, and I hope he can use it.

Tonight - I'm going to an election night party in Moscow. I expect mostly expat Americans- perhaps with some curious Russians mixed in. More on that tomorrow!

Thinking about global politics at sunrise

At this point in the summer, the morning is not just the best time for walking; it’s the only time for walking. That is, if you want to walk comfortably without being soaked in sweat. At 9 a.m., the temperature is already more than 30 degree Celsius (85 or so Fahrenheit). So, I walk early in the morning.

It’s also a beautiful time for walking, the sun rising, the traffic sparse. On the pedestrian boulevard by the Caspian Sea, the ice cream vendors sleep on benches or next to their stands. The exercise aficionados of all ages walk, run, or roll along the pavement. The fishermen line the pier, tugging on their long poles in the strange hope of landing a fix perhaps three or maybe four inches long. The sun rises. I’ll include here some photos, and also a video clip I’ve put together.

As I walked, I thought about conversations of the previous day. I heard from a friend of mine in Moscow. We had a lively little e-mail exchange. I was curious about his opinion, because he is Western educated, and he was not a fan of Putin when Putin came to power. But in recent years, I have sensed that his opposition to the status quo has diminished. Like many Russians, he shares an understandable sense of being disrespected. In the last seven years especially, the United States has acted too often as if the objections of Russia to US strategic plans do not need to be taken seriously. The war in Georgia put the United States and the rest of the world that yes, Russia does still matter. Quite a bit. (My friend recommended this recent article in The Guardian for an even-handed treatment of the issue.) Here's another article that provides a some different perspectives. It's a bit rambling - but it makes some good points.

I was also thinking about a conversation with another friend – alluded to earlier – about the Russian people being losers in this war too. I think this is true. In fact, as I think about it – the one player who seems to act as if he has won from this situation is John McCain. I was thinking about this especially after a recent NY Times poll about voters and their priorities. If the voters are focused on the economy, McCain comes out behind. But the US public appears to think that he would be a better commander-in-chief. (This perception drives me crazy – because I think he is incomparably worse than Barack Obama in that regard too. To my mind, McCain’s statements on foreign relations have been rash and foolish. We do not need another fool in the White House.) So, creating some sort of international crisis situation plays to McCain’s perceived strength. Also, don’t forget that McCain’s top foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann received more than $730,000 in lobbying fees from Georgia since 2001.

So, it would be in McCain’s benefit if Georgia President Saakashvili felt emboldened to take aggressive action against the South Ossetians and their Russian protectors. The response of the Russians was almost entirely predictable, but it could be worth it for Saakashvili if he understood that the United States would support him.

Of course, Scheunemann couldn’t guarantee that support, and the Georgian people lose in the gamble. But John McCain gets an opportunity to look aggressive in a situation that seems to benefit a hawkish stance. Look at the polls. In the week after the fighting in Georgia, McCain has done well versus Obama. Reuters even produced a poll last week that showed him up by five points over Obama.

In general, I am not a conspiracy theorist. Conspiracy theories tend to make the world simpler than it is. But – secret arrangements in government and between governments occur all the time. Reality can be just as weird as anything dreamed up by Robert Ludlum. (Remember Oliver North?)

The New Face of Fascism

While the news yesterday was of the ceasefire in Georgia, the news today was of ceasefire violations. I had lunch with a journalist today who was talking about how the city of Gori continues to be held by Russians, despite the pledge of the Russians to return to their previous lines. When I listened to the BBC later in the day, I heard confirmation of this report, with a journalist on the scene describing tanks still in the town, while South Ossetian forces looted the city.

The Azerbaijanis I’ve spoken to here are not comforted or mollified by the ceasefire. Anger against the Russians runs high. I’ve included a photo of the front page of today’s Zerkalo, one of the leading independent newspapers in Baku. The headline reads “The New Face of Fascism.” The subtitle roughly reads “Putin’s Russia very painfully reminds one of Germany in the 1930s.” The article begins with a discussion of Nazi Propaganda Chief Joseph Goebbels injunction that people will believe lies if they are big enough and told often enough. (Actually, the article misstates Goebbels original quote, which can be found here.)

(Actually, the Goebbels quote is quite interesting, bringing into sharp contrast the needs of the state and the needs of humanity. The last part of the quote is “ …for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” Goebbels was a sociopath, but he makes an interesting point. Truth is the enemy of the state. There's something to chew on.)

I’ll spare you a translation of the whole article in Zerkalo, which is long and freely mixes “analysis” with news. But one of the main points is that the announcement of the ceasefire is itself a lie. Also, the author says that the Russian claims not to be seeking regime change in Georgia are false. And finally, the article argues with the Russian claims about the thousands of civilians killed in the assault by the Georgian military.

A number of articles about the conflict are found on the other pages of the newspaper. Here are some of the headlines: “Russia needs a wide-scale war on the Southern Caucasus.” “Russians recommend that Azerbaijan not make sudden movements” The text of the articles conveys generally the sense that while the incursion of Russian forces occurred in Georgia, its shock is quite clearly felt here in Azerbaijan.

You have to remember that Zerkalo is a Russian language newspaper. I'm not sure exactly what the Azerbaijani newspapers are saying today - but day.az, an Internet news portals that carries its news in English, Azerbaijani and Russian, has articles with similar viewpoints. One of the articles on the site today has the headline: "Russia may use Karabakh the way it used South Ossetia." Another article is headlined "The visit card of Russia's external policy are (sic) military actions against other countries."

Empty gestures for free elections

Yesterday I saw the direct evidence of presidential power in action. The day before, I heard from a friend about a new decree that all the posters of the current president, Ilham Aliyev, were to come down. The president ordered this move in order to guarantee a free election.

People are inured to such absurdities at this point. Everyone knows there is no meaningful opposition to the president in the Oct. 15 election. Any opposition has been thwarted in numerous ways – from the de facto restrictions on the free press to the actual physical abuse of dissidents. Nonetheless, the president is graciously taking down the posters of himself in the couple of months prior to the election in order to guarantee a free election.

So, a friend of mine asked yesterday – “Whose picture do you think will replace the posters of Ilham?” I was pretty sure of the answer. But I also thought- “No. They can’t be that blatant. Perhaps the posters will be replaced with some completely non-political statement like the desire for international brotherhood and sisterhood.”
Of course, this was silly. My friend knew the answer & I did too. The posters of Ilham have come down, and they have been replaced by the pictures of his father, who has been styled by the current government as the “father of the country.” So, now, instead of being reminded of the benevolence of the current president, we are merely reminded of the benevolence of his father.

And, coincidentally, replacing the hundreds of thousands of billboards and posters spread throughout this land is quite a large task. It should keep thousands of people employed, always a good thing at election time.

The two pictures are of the same billboard, in the “old town” of Sheki. One was taken last week. One was taken last night.

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I’ve mentioned that one of the things I love about teaching here is the window that the students open for me on life in this country. Today was the last day of class, so we were going over the articles that the students had written. It was lot of work, and we were talking for about 45 minutes after the class was supposed to finish. The last student I met with is writing a story about the price of bread. Earlier in the summer, the price rose sharply. Now – she was writing about the price going down.

The article began roughly with the statement: “People are glad that the price of bread is going down.” Yawn! I let her read some more and stopped her after a few sentences. We talked about the subject, about what was the point of the article. And just when I was beginning to despair about sharpening the focus, she mentioned that while the price has gone down, so has the size of the loaves. So – people are happier because they think the price has gone down. But actually ….. it hasn’t!
I’m sure this practice was probably discovered not long after the first commercial bakeries began to function. Mesopotamia? Nonetheless, it’s a nice twist and gives the story an interesting focus.

Aside from the billboard pictures, I’ll include a few shots of an old graveyard clinging to the steep hills above the city.

lunch

I received a little political lesson yesterday, but I am still not sure how to interpret it. During class, my Azerbaijani interpreter told me that one of the students needed to talk with me. As it turned out, the student needed to talk to me because she said a journalist she knew wanted to talk to me. I was unenthusiastic about the vague invitation to talk with him. Frankly, I anticipated some sort of nationalistic diatribe. But it seemed impossible to evade this invitation and after dinner my colleague and I met with the “journalist.”

As it turned out, Sabir was not so much a journalist as a businessman and a politician. Business and politics are closely linked in many countries, and the two fields of activity are very tight in Azerbaijan. I am convinced that it is impossible to become wealthy without accumulating political clout first.

Sabir is also the leader of a pro-government party. Of the pro-government parties, however, he said it is the most critical of the government. And – he was quite open about his criticism of some people surrounding the president.

The lunch was curious for all sorts of reasons that I won’t go into here, but the political lesson seemed to be that some level of criticism was possible, if the critic somehow sweetens the criticism. In this case, the criticism was accompanied with incredible devotion to Heydar Aliyev, the father of the current president. Sabir appeared to genuinely adore Aliyev, and because he is so vocal about his adoration, perhaps he is allowed more freedom to be critical of the current government.

Or – perhaps his criticism is a facade too – useful for the current government in one way or another, but really ineffectual.

On a less speculative note, the trainer who has been working with students on blogs had his last day here today. Wonderful energy! Crazy and frustrating sometimes – but good energy. So, our students in Sheki now have a group blog page and each one has an individual blog page. It’s educational for them just to learn about navigating around the Internet – but this step might also be in the direction of freedom of expression. In this country, the print and broadcast media are tightly controlled – but controlling the Internet is not so easy.

Included is a photo of our lunch with Sabir yesterday. There I heard many stories that are not appropriate for this forum.