Don't forget imprisoned bloggers!

There is a tendency for the attention given to travesties of justice to peak at the time of a trial, and then to decline after a court has apparently decided to level an unjust verdict. Naturally, when a trial is ongoing, the hope is that the world community can somehow influence the people pulling strings to show mercy and commonsense. This did not happen, of course, in the case of Adnan and Emin, convicted last year on trumped up charges. But just because the two bloggers and activists are sitting in a jail in Azerbaijan is no reason to forget about them. To the contrary. So, I was heartened to read here about demonstrations planned at Azerbaijani embassies in London and Paris next week. Great! The Azerbaijan government must know that they cannot quash dissent with impunity. There are consequences. The government sits comfortably on oil revenues but they should know that they will never have the respect of the world community as long as they repress their own people!

Shame on the government of Azerbaijan!

The sentence of Emin Milli and Adnan Hajizade should not be a surprise. Two years for Adnan; two and a half for Emin. Everyone knows that the the government of Azerbaijan is not afraid to jail journalists. In the last 10 years, the government has jailed numerous courageous journalists and even has been implicated in their deaths. What that government does fear is its own people. The government of Azerbaijan fears its own people because it abuses them. This is the reason for the harsh sentence for two young men who were guilty of promoting democracy in a country where this concept endangers those in power.

I am not optimistic that there will be some reprieve for Emin and Adnan, although such events occur. This allows the president to act magnanimously after the kangaroo courts have done their work, intimidating journalists.

And I am not optimistic that pressure or reaction to the sentence from Europe or the United States will be able to sway the government of Azerbaijan toward leniency in general. With this decision, the government put its repressive stance on the record. For the rulers of Azerbaijan, control of Azerbaijani citizens is much more important than any sense of justice. To any casual observer, the case against these two young men is clearly evident as a farce. It was a show trial, but the government of Azerbaijan is not ashamed to conduct such travesties. Such procedures have nothing to do with justice, truth or fairness. They are about naked power and intimidation of the populace.

I write these lines before dawn in the United States. At this hour, the weather here is dark and rainy. Though the day is later in Baku, it is much, much darker there.

Yet more repression in Moscow

The author of this interesting post suggests that Western leaders are still hoping for signs of liberalism from Medvedev. I hope that they are not so naive - but I suppose that it's possible.

The post itself is disturbing. Two more human rights organizations coming under pressure from Russian authorities. Nothing really new, over course. But these two organizations are quite prominent, and the fact that the authorities move against them with such impunity is discouraging.

The screws tighten even on the faithful

Radio Liberty has a small piece today about what seems to be a minor request by the authorities in Baku: Turn down the call to prayer!

Many of those who have lived in Azerbaijan and other Muslim countries know this sound - in the morning and the evening most notably. I remember being awoken by the electronic muezzin in Lenkoran at what seemed to be an ungodly hour. I was staying near the Iranian-supported mosque, which may have explained its volume.

In Baku, I rarely noticed the muezzin, although I lived right next to the Old City.

I find it very hard to believe that the authorities are responding to any complaints for residents. The idea that authorities would respond to citizen complaints in general is just laughable. They are asking for the mosques to turn down the muezzins in a direct expression of power. They are asserting their dominance over the religious establishment. Religion should serve the state. Those who are involved with religious matters should not forget this fact.

Award winner Eynulla Fatullayev still serving his 8-year term

Trial of bloggers begins

So Azerbaijan begins its latest show trial today, as Emin Milli and Adnan Hajizade face judgment for their crime of "hooliganism." It is tragic for the two young men, of course, but it is even more tragic for Azerbaijan as a whole, that its rulers can act contrary to common decency and even common sense with such impunity.

For the few readers who are unaware of the situation, Global Voices Online has a good summary, including tweeted updates here.

In Washington and in London, protesters have denounced the repressive policies of the Azerbaijan government. But - in Azerbaijan itself? What reaction will there be?

An Azerbaijani friend of mine wrote me today about the situation in his country. These are dark and dangerous times for people who are vocal in their support for democracy, he said. For people who just remain quiet, however, it is not so dangerous.

So - how long will the people of Azerbaijan remain quiescent? Until the oil runs out?

In a side note - I saw that the president of Turkmenistan has invited the president of Azerbaijan for visit. How nice! They can compare notes on repression. Maybe Ilham Aliyev can learn some new techniques.

A short film about Emin Milli and Adnan Hacizade

This film has just been posted on YouTube. Emin and Adnan now have spent more than 23 days in jail. The government of Azerbaijan is effectively ignoring the protests against the imprisonment of these activists.

Where is this going?

Radio Free Europe has a nice opinion piece today about Azerbaijan's "steady descent into authoritarianism." I have written about this subject repeatedly on this blog. I did not have the perspective that natives of that country have, because I only moved there last year. I did, nonetheless, talk to many Azerbaijanis, and I understood that the repression has steadily increased in recent years.

I continue to be both confounded and fascinated by the question of democratization. Too often, it appears that the rather deterministic views of Carles Boix, Daron Acemoglu, and James A. Robinson have the bulk of supporting evidence. I cannot do justice to their work here. Suffice it to say that they all focus on the impact that economic resources and distribution of wealth have on the democratization of societies.

Azerbaijan potentially has many different sources of wealth, but in recent history its primary source of income has been from petroleum and natural gas. These are resources that are immobile. The oil in Azerbaijan may be depleted, but it will not decide to emigrate because of repressive government policies. When the source of wealth is intellectual, however, the rulers of the country must act more carefully. Factories can be moved. Trading offices can be closed and re-opened easily. If the rulers of a country want to hold onto this type of wealth, they must be careful not to enact policies that will cause the sources of this wealth to move.

Where does this leave Azerbaijan?

Not in a good place. The rulers of Azerbaijan control the wealth of their country. It's not going away quickly. In fact, because of Azerbaijan's delicate position between Russia and the West, the rulers of the country are trying to play a delicate game, flirting with both sides in order to achieve maximum freedom of action within their country, while picking whatever benefits they can from Russia and the West. The winners in the game - so far - are the rulers of Azerbaijan, while the bulk of the population in Azerbaijan loses as the country becomes increasingly autocratic and the distribution of income becomes increasingly skewed.

The sad thing about the analyses of the above political scientists is that even revolution does not change the situation that much. When the wealth is immobile, the succeeding regime is likely to be just as undemocratic as the one it replaced.

Russia is a wonderful example.

Analysis: Europe should foster better ties with Azerbaijan

This energy analyst urges Europe to support Azerbaijan in its struggle to regain Nagorno-Karabakh. He makes no comment about the current Azerbaijan leadership and the recent repressive actions in that country.Yes, supporting a fair peace settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh is important, but it's also important to push for the process of democratization in Azerbaijan. Appeasing corrupt oil-rich regimes is not in the long-term interest of Europe or the people of Azerbaijan. Economic decisions should not be divorced from political reality.

read more | digg story

Notes from a foreigner

While I am a native born US citizen, I often feel like I am living in a foreign culture. The language down in North Carolina is certainly understandable. Most of the time. But it's a different culture for me - born & raised a Yankee.

This came to mind this morning when I heard something on the radio about Confederate Memorial Day being celebrated today. According to Wikipedia, this holiday was officially yesterday in North & South Carolina. It marks the death of Gen. Stonewall Jackson in 1863 & the capture of Jefferson Davis, president of the Confederacy, in 1865.

In 2000, May 10 was made an official holiday in South Carolina, a compromise that also allowed Martin Luther King Jr. Day to gain status as a holiday. So, government offices are closed today, May 11.

I chatted quite a bit with locals yesterday & no one mentioned the "holiday." I didn't hear any "rebel yells." Didn't notice an unusual number of Confederate flags flying.

While the holiday didn't seem to spark much controversy locally, I do believe that the conflict is latent, not resolved. Just a few weeks ago, an African-American official in Alabama came under fire after removing Confederate flags from a graveyard. To African-Americans, the flags clearly indicate support for a regime that kept them in slavery. How can one note take offense at that? I have African-American friends who have expressed their feelings about it to me.

But for many white southerners, the flags mean something else. Pride in local history? Feistiness? I'm not sure. It would be an interesting subject for study - a good doctoral dissertation, but not mine.

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From another foreign country, Azerbaijan, I got news this morning from a friend about the arrest of about 50 protesters yesterday in Baku. The US Embassy actually made some pointed criticism of the arrests.

Arzu Geybullayeva, an Azerbaijani blogger, has some interesting observations on the current political situation in the country and some links to some video coverage of the protests. The students were seized because they were protesting that the government is refusing to allow days of mourning for the victims of the massacre on April 30.

I read about the arrests and I think about the "dictator's dilemma." I became familiar with this concept during a class I took on dictatorship taught by Katri Sieberg at Binghamton University. The concept is quite simple. Because the dictator's rule is absolute, in some ways his information about his own subjects is the most imperfect. After all, who wanted to inform Stalin about the failure of the five-year plans? Who wanted to tell Saddam Hussein about the condition of his army?

In this low information environment, the dictator is unable to properly assess threats to his rule. He faces the choice about how severely he should repress - harshly or not so harshly. The safer option usually appears to be harsh repression.

So, this is what the students face. The government fears that acceding to their demands will just lead to further problems. The authorities fear that if they loosen up and allow tacit criticism of the government, who knows where a little free speech might lead. (Remember the chants about corruption during the May 1 protests?)

By the way, even if you don't speak Azerbaijani, check out this video. I think it conveys some of the sadness and frustration among the students.

Demonstrations in Baku

Harlem

What happens to a dream deferred?
Does it dry up
like a raisin in the sun?


Or fester like a sore--
And then run?
Does it stink like rotten meat?
Or crust and sugar over--
like a syrupy sweet?

Maybe it just sags
like a heavy load.

Or does it explode?

by Langston Hughes

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Azerbaijan is far from Harlem of Langston Hughes, but today I was thinking about the concepts he expresses in this poem. A friend of mine sent me information this morning about the student demonstrations in Baku.

Here also is a link to the blog of Ilgar Mammamadov. He was one of the first political bloggers in the country, and I see that he was at the protests and is writing about them.

An Azerbaijani friend of mine later explained that the students wanted a day of remembrance for the victims, but the police were trying to control all the expressions of sorrow. I think the authorities are reflexively trying to restrain all spontaneous expressions. At the demonstration, the students were told to disperse. Also, the police interfered with the demonstration - with plain-clothed policemen telling the students to go in one direction, while uniformed cops sent them a different way.

This repressive reaction on the part of the government is part of living in an authoritarian country. All spontaneous action and communication is suspect - even if it is patently non-political. But - by trying to restrain such natural and human impulses - the authorities only will make things worse for themselves. The control will chafe more on the feelings of the people - who know that the government does not represent them - but feel powerless to make any changes.

Interesting - that in one of the news accounts here, the students are quoted as chanting "No terror, no corruption."

While the government may argue that it innocent in this particular terrorism incident, the complaints about corruption certainly hit close to home.

Such government repression can create serious consequences for the people in charge. Think Bloody Sunday, Jan. 22, 1905, when peaceful demonstrators in St. Petersburg were killed by the tsar's police. Or - perhaps more relevantly, think of Qara Yanvar, when 26,000 Soviet troops stormed Baku and killed hundreds of unarmed residents of the city. The killings were followed by stubborn resistance and 40 days of mourning, while the country engaged in a de facto strike. While the intervention by the soldiers was to maintain Soviet power, the opposite occurred. The country declared its independence the following year.

I'm not saying in anyway that the student demonstrations are similar to either of these historical events. But - I do believe that in situations when a population does not feel represented by its government, non-political events can have political consequences that are surprising and seem to be out of proportion.

Online journalism is not panacea

While my journalism education efforts in this country pay special attention to the potential of the Internet, it's important to remember that the Internet does not provide journalists immunity from government repression. Far from it, as this recent report by the Committee to Protect Journalists makes clear. In fact, last year Internet journalists represented the majority of journalists imprisoned for doing their jobs. This is the first time that the Internet journalists have been a majority of jailed journalists since the organization started compiling its census 10 years ago.

Recent conversations

A few observations from recent conversations:

A couple of days ago, I was talking with a publisher here. We were talking about one of the current issues discussed by members in the opposition and by members of the foreign community: the impending closure of the Azerbaijani-language version of Radio Liberty. I’ve heard different views on this. Some people think it’s not a big deal. The consensus I’ve heard from the foreigners living here is that it is a big deal, and backchannel protests are being registered by various embassies here.

The fellow I was talking with said the closure would be a like clear line. If they can get away with this, then they will know that they can get away with even more repressive actions.

I won’t put any money on the outcome at this point, but let’s just say that it’s not clear that the closure will be stopped.

In another conversation, an Azerbaijani journalist told me that the websites of Radio Liberty and the Turan News Agency have already be shut down in Nakhchivan, the Azerbaijan autonomous republic bordering Iran. Nakhchivan is generally accepted to be the most repressive area of Azerbaijan, and some people regard it as a testing area for policies to be tried in the country at large. I’ve known a few people from this region, and I knew one U.S. citizen who lived there. People describe the stark physical beauty of the place and the grim political realities of a regime close to a police state.

Yesterday I was talking politics with some people from Iran and Azerbaijan. One of the men remarked on the dissent in Iran to the current regime. For example, a recent declaration criticizing the current Iranian leadership was made by a large group of economists in that country. The natural question: could such an event occur in Azerbaijan.

It was deemed unlikely. Why?

One man, an Azerbaijani, said that a key difference is that Iran never had experience with communism. In communist countries, private property rights were destroyed, and the countries still live with this legacy. So if a person dissents or causes trouble for the regime, there is an easy solution. Take away his property. Without any property, he will suddenly have bigger problems and he will forget about his dissent. He will be muzzled and intimidated.

One of the guys joked that Iran, they would just kill you.

But perhaps killing certain people is not always an option – and so we have this recent demonstration of dissent in Iran.

How to persuade people, or at least keep them quiet

Perhaps I am overly cynical, but I perceive the fevered pace of public works in Azerbaijan in the context of the coming election. People can look at the new lamps going up on the boulevard by the sea in Baku and think – “Oh, there’s my government at work.” They can be happy with the shiny new ride installed for the kids downtown. A small army of street sweepers is employed to scour the public areas around the center of the city throughout the day. It would be interesting to count how many are employed every day during this pre-election period, and compare it with the post-election employment. Hmm. That’s a possibility.

Today I took a long taxi ride – and hence had a long conversation with a taxi driver. The conversation spanned the gamut from geopolitical questions to local politics. His take on the elections was predictable – nothing will change. But his read on the current political climate was even darker than most people I talk to. His conclusion: If you criticize the government aloud, you put yourself and your family in danger. The man wasn’t talking about writing a letter to the editor or something. (That option doesn’t really exist here.) Even making open criticism at the market, for example, could be dangerous. People get killed for it. Just disappear.

The driver said he wouldn’t have expressed this opinion to other Azerbaijanis, but I’m an American, so he felt safe talking about the situation.

Whether or not his dark view is justified, I think he was being sincere in expressing his fears. In itself, this is disturbing. Repression works through fear. Actually going to the trouble of physically repressing all dissenters is quite labor intensive. But all you need to do is inspire enough fear, and the dissent will be manageable.