Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Sunday, December 27, 2009
What does unrest in Iran mean for Azerbaijan?
I read this article today, and thought about the implications of the unrest in Iran. Consequences are unpredictable. Will government opponents in Azerbaijan see the tyrants fall in Iran, and think about their own tyrants at home. What about the economic consequences - as a huge oil producer faces domestic unrest? What about the repercussions in countries that are dominated by Muslim fundamentalists? Potentially, the fall of the regime in Iran could affect any number of political and economic equilibria.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Another analysis of Iran
Dilip Hiro has written interesting analysis of the situation in Iran. Surely some people will object to some elements of his piece, but I think he makes some good points, especially about the demographic factors that are influencing the situation in Iran.
The fact that he comes from a Hindu background might be seen as an influence on his understanding of Islam. Personally, I think that any theocratic state is bound to be undemocratic - Hindu, Buddhist, Christian or Muslim.
The fact that he comes from a Hindu background might be seen as an influence on his understanding of Islam. Personally, I think that any theocratic state is bound to be undemocratic - Hindu, Buddhist, Christian or Muslim.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Remembering a conversation with an Iranian
I was thinking this morning about Reza.
I met him nearly a year ago in a train compartment that smelled like an old shoe. Most of the sleeping berths on the Azerbaijani trains have this smell. It's not so bad. The ones next to the lavatory smell like ... the lavatory.
Reza was drunk, not obnoxiously drunk. Just happy drunk. He entered the compartment minutes before the train was scheduled to depart, and then sat next to the window, waving to his friends and sharing some last words with them. He also opened a final beer for the long night ride to Lenkoran.
This train ride, in fact, was just the first part of the journey home for Reza. He was going back to Iran, regretfully. He was able to communicate this to me in broken English. I do not speak Farsi and Reza spoke no Russian. I think we exchanged a few words in German and Azerbaijani, but mostly we managed with English.
He was very eager to talk with me, and to share his dissatisfaction with the ruling regime in Iran. His complaints were varied - but generally he was very unhappy about the lack of freedom there. One reason he liked coming to Azerbaijan was to drink and go to discos, for example. I think his dissatisfaction, however, was deeper than that. Reza worked as some sort of small businessman. I forget the details. The regime also made it difficult for his business.
At the time, George W. Bush was still the president of the United States, and we talked about U.S. politics. I lamented the course that foreign policy had taken under Bush, and also regretted that relations were not better between the United States and Iran. He agreed, and we toasted to international friendship, Reza drinking his beer while I drank my bottle of mineral water.
I had met Iranians before, but only emigrants and exiles. For me, it was quite educational to talk with someone who was currently living in the country. Some people in the United States pride themselves on the country's "free press," but in fact there are gaping holes in the press coverage provided to U.S residents. Iran is one of those subjects that is covered quite poorly by the U.S. press.
As I was thinking about Iran this morning, I was also thinking about history and historical cycles. There is a theory in political science that politics in the United States exhibits periodicity. The conventional understanding of these cycles is roughly 30 years. It's interesting to think back to the tumultuous period of the Iranian revolution. The revolution occurred nearly simultaneously with the ascendency of President Ronald Reagan and the conservative revolution he led. (Some people would argue that this was not a mere coincidence.) Both Reagan and the Mullahs led socially conservative forces. Perhaps we are seeing the natural end of that cycle? I don't mean that the current uprisings in Iran will lead to a re-vote, but the authorities have clearly seen their power and legitimacy compromised. Do they really think that they can force this genie back in the bottle? And what effect will the uprisings in Iran have on the Muslim world in general - if the quintessential Islamic republic is shown to disregard both morality and the will of its people?
I met him nearly a year ago in a train compartment that smelled like an old shoe. Most of the sleeping berths on the Azerbaijani trains have this smell. It's not so bad. The ones next to the lavatory smell like ... the lavatory.
Reza was drunk, not obnoxiously drunk. Just happy drunk. He entered the compartment minutes before the train was scheduled to depart, and then sat next to the window, waving to his friends and sharing some last words with them. He also opened a final beer for the long night ride to Lenkoran.
This train ride, in fact, was just the first part of the journey home for Reza. He was going back to Iran, regretfully. He was able to communicate this to me in broken English. I do not speak Farsi and Reza spoke no Russian. I think we exchanged a few words in German and Azerbaijani, but mostly we managed with English.
He was very eager to talk with me, and to share his dissatisfaction with the ruling regime in Iran. His complaints were varied - but generally he was very unhappy about the lack of freedom there. One reason he liked coming to Azerbaijan was to drink and go to discos, for example. I think his dissatisfaction, however, was deeper than that. Reza worked as some sort of small businessman. I forget the details. The regime also made it difficult for his business.
At the time, George W. Bush was still the president of the United States, and we talked about U.S. politics. I lamented the course that foreign policy had taken under Bush, and also regretted that relations were not better between the United States and Iran. He agreed, and we toasted to international friendship, Reza drinking his beer while I drank my bottle of mineral water.
I had met Iranians before, but only emigrants and exiles. For me, it was quite educational to talk with someone who was currently living in the country. Some people in the United States pride themselves on the country's "free press," but in fact there are gaping holes in the press coverage provided to U.S residents. Iran is one of those subjects that is covered quite poorly by the U.S. press.
As I was thinking about Iran this morning, I was also thinking about history and historical cycles. There is a theory in political science that politics in the United States exhibits periodicity. The conventional understanding of these cycles is roughly 30 years. It's interesting to think back to the tumultuous period of the Iranian revolution. The revolution occurred nearly simultaneously with the ascendency of President Ronald Reagan and the conservative revolution he led. (Some people would argue that this was not a mere coincidence.) Both Reagan and the Mullahs led socially conservative forces. Perhaps we are seeing the natural end of that cycle? I don't mean that the current uprisings in Iran will lead to a re-vote, but the authorities have clearly seen their power and legitimacy compromised. Do they really think that they can force this genie back in the bottle? And what effect will the uprisings in Iran have on the Muslim world in general - if the quintessential Islamic republic is shown to disregard both morality and the will of its people?
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Do American conservatives prefer radical Islamic leaders?
Today I read an amusing analysis of the political turmoil in Iran. Written by George Friedman, a conservative political scientist. The piece disparages allegations of vote fraud, and all but announces that Ahmadinejad must have won the election, because fraud would have been to difficult to arrange. Written before the street protests that followed in the days after the vote, Friedman almost seemed eager to maintain the status quo in Iran. It's an interesting perspective. I wonder if the existence of such a radical leader in Iran is quite useful to certain conservatives. With his extreme statements about the Holocaust, for example, Ahmadinejad is a perfect example of the "crazy Islamic leader," against whom all sorts of force is justified. Dealing with a more moderate Muslim leader might actually be more difficult intellectually for some conservatives.
Iran's unrest could have regional impact
The news from Iran is exciting for anyone interested in the progress of democratization. Democracy is unpredictable - and so I don't think anyone really knows what will happen exactly. A cynic might predict that the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will crush the people - and that will be that. Perhaps. But the populace in Iran has showed before that it cannot be disregarded. Ironic that the president, who was a student leader during the 1979 revolution, should now be challenged by a popular uprising against his rule.
A friend of mine in Azerbaijan notes that Mir Hossein Mousavi is ethnically an Azerbaijani Turk, and frequently spoke Azeri during demonstrations. Yet the election results for the city of Tabriz, an ethnically Azeri city, showed Ahmadinejad winning a decisive victory there. Something doesn't add up.
Interesting that the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan, both of whom fear democratic aspirations in their own countries, were quick to congratulate Ahmadinejad on his victory. While quantifying the impact of democratization is probably impossible, political scientists have long theorized about the effect of having democratic neighbors. What does it mean for other area strongmen if a popular uprising shakes the political leadership of Iran?
A friend of mine in Azerbaijan notes that Mir Hossein Mousavi is ethnically an Azerbaijani Turk, and frequently spoke Azeri during demonstrations. Yet the election results for the city of Tabriz, an ethnically Azeri city, showed Ahmadinejad winning a decisive victory there. Something doesn't add up.
Interesting that the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan, both of whom fear democratic aspirations in their own countries, were quick to congratulate Ahmadinejad on his victory. While quantifying the impact of democratization is probably impossible, political scientists have long theorized about the effect of having democratic neighbors. What does it mean for other area strongmen if a popular uprising shakes the political leadership of Iran?
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